Daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) in PDAC: Independent Peak Sales Estimate

Independent Revenue Model

Independent bottom-up peak sales estimate for daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Daraxonrasib is Revolution Medicines' lead KRAS inhibitor, currently in late-stage development across KRAS-mutant solid tumors, with PDAC representing its most significant commercial opportunity given the high prevalence of KRAS mutations — present in roughly 90% of pancreatic cancer cases — and the near-absence of effective targeted therapies in this indication. Our central estimate is $8.5B in peak annual global sales for daraxonrasib in PDAC, modestly above the analyst consensus range of $5–7.6B. The estimate is built on a 55% peak market share assumption, reflecting daraxonrasib's potential as a best-in-class pan-KRAS inhibitor in a setting with limited direct competition, and a $200K annual net price benchmark derived from approved KRAS inhibitor comparables.