Daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) in PDAC: Independent Peak Sales Estimate

Derived from SEER-reported annual pancreatic cancer incidence of approximately 67,530 [6], corroborated by ACS 2025 [7], multiplied by the 90% PDAC histological proportion per Park et al 2021 [8], rounded to 61,000. PDAC is the dominant subtype of pancreatic cancer.

Approximately 50–55% of PDAC patients are diagnosed in the metastatic stage, which is the patient subpopulation of focus in the daraxonrasib trials [8]. If daraxonrasib were to expand into locally advanced PDAC by the time of peak sales, the eligible population would increase considerably, as locally advanced disease accounts for an additional 30–35% of PDAC diagnoses [8].

KRAS mutations are present in approximately 90% of PDAC tumors [9], making this the defining genomic feature of the indication. Only KRAS-mutant patients would be eligible for daraxonrasib.

Real-world treatment pattern data indicates that approximately 46% of metastatic PDAC patients who receive first-line therapy go on to receive second-line therapy [10]. This parameter is toggled OFF by default, consistent with the base case assumption that daraxonrasib achieves approval in both 1L and 2L settings at the time of peak sales. When toggled ON, the eligible patient pool is multiplied by this rate to model a scenario in which regulatory approval is limited to the second-line setting.

The 55% midpoint reflects daraxonrasib's first-in-class positioning in a high unmet need indication with no currently approved KRAS-targeted therapies. Lack of efficacious treatment options and promising data from daraxonrasib trials could lead to market share closer to bullish estimates of 70% at the time of peak sales. The slider in the calculator above allows this to be adjusted within the modeled range.

The 40% lower bound reflects McKinsey first-mover estimates for innovative oncology therapies [11]. The 70% upper bound reflects additional share potential from physician specialty concentration, route of administration, and multi-indication expansion.

Benchmarked to approved oncology therapies [12]. $200,000 represents a directional estimate consistent with pricing for novel oncology targeted therapies with first-in-class status in high unmet need indications.

Roskoski 2024 produces a corroborating figure of $214,800 annually, calculated from average neoplastic disease treatment costs of $17,900/month [13], supporting the $200K assumption.

Averaged from two independent sources: Ramagopalan et al 2025 (57%, Keytruda revenue split, selected for oncology relevance) [14] and Goldman & Lakdawalla 2018 (63%, derived from total pharmaceutical sales) [15]. The 60% average is used as the base case.